Wily Coyotes

The Leafs have gone 9-5-2 since my last post, which is nothing short of amazing. It also proves I suck as a blogger. Meh.

I was in attendance at the fiasco that was the game vs. Phoenix on Wednesday, Dec 16th. A 6-3 loss was better than we deserved in that game, even if we suffered some deficient officiating. A little point-form, to overcome my long-windiness...

• The Blake penalty that set up the first Phoenix goal was non-existent. The White kick-in call was total crap as well. The league needs to review its officiating and its rulebook. It needs only this team's first 34 games to prove inadequacy and expose hypocrisy.
• This team lives and dies by the forecheck, and checking altogether. In the previous game vs. the Senators, the defence was a wall at the blue line, and the tactic set the tone for the game. The Leafs came out flat against the Yotes, got pushed around, outskated and outworked.
• 2 Best Leafs: Alexei Ponikarovski, who made his physical presence felt all night long, and was the only Leaf who pursued the puck with any ambition. Phil Kessel, who despite fanning on a few shots, and some suspect backchecking, was still our most dangerous offensive threat.
• 2 Worst Leafs: Garnet Exelby, turnover machine. Rickard Wallin, sweater wearer. Honourable mention to Vesa Toskala, who looked uncomfortable and off-balance in net.

The Leafs have managed greatly improved play over the last 16 games by playing the kind of solid defence that finishes checks without overextending to make them, by getting improved goaltending from the 3-man platoon, and by finding a set of lines that appears to have chemistry. Individually, the awakening of Jason Blake has given the team 2 valid scoring lines, and helps to stretch opposition defence thinner. Luke Schenn's woes continue, as he has sat out the last 3 games in the press box.

Viktor Stalberg will join Schenn and the Leafs in the lineup on Friday, Dec. 18th vs. Buffalo. The Leafs are in tough over the next 3 games, with a game against Boston sandwiched between games against Buffalo. We have yet to beat these teams this year, and perennially lose to these rivals. Let's hope the hard work of the last 16 games is not squandered by a 4 game losing streak.

No Quarter

18 games in, and the Leafs are 3-10-5 for 11pts. That's on pace for 50pts, with absolutely no chance for playoffs at this rate. In fact, it's good for last place and the record for worst season since the lockout, beating the Isles(61) last season, the Pens(58) and Blues(57) of 05/06 and current record holder Philadelphia Flyers(56) of o6/07. As incidental information, the Isles subsequently drafted John Tavares #1 following that season, Jordan Staal #2 for the Pens, Erik Johnson #1 for the Blues & James van Riemsdyk #2 for the Flyers, respectively. The only small comfort for us at this point is that Carolina is currently performing even worse than we are.

If you're counting the values for the Kessel trade, Kessel was a 5th overall. Generally speaking, top 5(lottery) picks tend to become the stars of the league, first rounders trend towards serviceable NHL mainstays, and into the second round could vary from decent selection to complete crapshoot, depending on the year. In 2006, the Leafs chose Kulemin 44th in the second round, while the Bruins chose Milan Lucic at 50th. 2nd round drafting is spotty at best. At our current pace, we will have paid for Kessel with a player comparable to Kessel(lottery pick), plus a serviceable NHL mainstay, plus a questionable 2nd rounder in a supposed weak draft. I'm not against Kessel, nor is this post particularly about the deal, but you have to wonder why the rush to get him.

On the ice, the Leafs are lucky to have Phil Kessel. He is easily our best forward, and has invigorated our attack and our powerplay. Our issue is much like it was when we had Sundin, we have nobody worthy to play alongside him. There are a great number of glaring issues with this team, and reasons why we have the record we do, despite seemingly outplaying our opponents. Issue number one has been goaltending. Gustavsson is the key to the future, regardless of his performance vs. Calgary. This is precisely why we dress two keepers, because sometimes goalies have off nights. Toskala is the opposite. Sometimes he is on, and plays well. We need him to play his way into a trade-worthy commodity.

Let's examine the skaters a little more in depth, with just about 25% of the season in the books.

gp/g/a/p/+\-
Tomas Kaberle 18/2/19/21/-5; on pace for 9/87/96!(barring injuries of course) 18th overall for points, 2nd overall for assists, leads all defencemen in points. Our only all-star last year, and oddly enough, Boston wanted more than him for Kessel, even when you include that sweetheart contract. Our best player, our veteran Leaf, our should be captain. One wonders if he isn't captain because he isn't a vocal leader, or if Burke is just biding time before he trades Kaberle. Thought of as 'soft', Kaberle's -5 is tied with Schenn & Finger for 2nd amongst d-men. Our biggest trade commodity would also be saddest to lose, sentimentally and point-wise.
Mikhail Grabovski 18/3/9/12/-4; on pace for 14/41/55, which overall is better than his rookie campaign, but his scoring has diminished. Though his assist numbers are seeing improvement, I don't think anyone would ever classify him as a playmaking centre. Grabovski is fiesty and resilient, and has improved a great deal in the faceoff circle. That said, he would not be a top-six forward on any team I'd call a contender, and he certainly wouldn't be a bottom-six forward anywhere.
Jason Blake 18/2/9/11/-3; on pace for 9/41/50, 13pts less than he accumulated last season, and of those points missing, almost all are goals. With a shooting percentage of 3.3% Blake can't seem to find the back of the net this season, though, to be fair, he was a late bloomer last year. He is not crashing the net as hard as he did last year, seems to have lost a fraction of his speed, and seems to be trying to become more of a playmaker, which is usually career suicide for snipers. Contract gives him 2 more years, and though the term drops to 3mil per, the cap hit is still 4mil per. We either have to take a bad contract to move him, or make him a star....at Ricoh.
Matt Stajan 17/4/7/11/-8; on pace for 19/33/52, very similar to last years stats. That Stajan's growth is stagnating is telling. Staj would be a great 3rd line centre on a good team, but is being required to play top-six on this team, and is coming up short. Maybe he'll find chemistry with Kessel, but that will only matter for this season. Hopefully Burke turns him into a pick at the deadline. I'd even re-sign him in the off-season, as a permanent 3rd line centre.
Ian White 18/3/7/10/1; on pace for 14/32/46, a potential career year for a guy who's having to prove everyone wrong all over again. This team needs a captain who defines resiliency, and nobody does that better than Ian White. Leads our 'greatly improved' defence with a +1 rating, our only defenceman in the positive. Ian White is the only reason we can even consider moving Tomas Kaberle. Burke needs to step up and show this young man the respect he is due, with a contract, and a C, hopefully.
Niklas Hagman 17/6/4/10/-6; on pace for 29/19/48, consistent improvement for the veteran Finn. Hagman's plus/minus rating seems to go the way of the team, but he has been a pretty consistant defender and shot blocker while putting up points. Acceptable as a 2nd or 3rd liner, Hagman has a place on this roster for the remaining 2 years of his contract.
Lee Stempniak 18/4/5/9/-6; on pace for 18/23/41, higher than last year's totals, and all improvement in the goals column. Clearly visible on the ice this year, Stempniak is in a position to make everyone the beneficiary of his contract year push. Brian Burke should be able to parlay him into a pick at the deadline to any team looking for a responsible two-way winger who's looking to impress his future employer, though he'll never see another 30 goal year, or another contract like his 30 goal year earned him. Another guy I'd bring back as a 3rd liner, on a more manageable contract.
Alexei Ponikarovsky 18/7/2/9/2; on pace for 32/9/41, which seems on par with his development goal-wise, but underachieving in the assist column, likely because the rest of the team is struggling to score. Joins White and Kessel as the only players on the team in the positive for plus/minus. In his contract year, but has shown enough improvement since Antropov's departure to show that this is more than a dash for cash. Has never used his size to his full advantage, but forechecks well and plays the two-way game quite well. Should be worth more at the deadline than Antropov was last year. Should also be pursued to return as a 2nd or 3rd line winger, unless Burke can do better for cheaper in the market.
Francois Beauchemin 18/2/5/7/-9; on pace for 9/23/32, almost identical numbers to his best year in the league, with Anaheim. Burke's prized acquisitions and defensive upgrades share the distinction of worst plus/minus on the team at -9. At this point, it's worth giving him the time to adjust to the system and his teammates. What ever happened to pairing him on the power play with Kaberle? I'm far more worried about Komisarek.
John Mitchell 18/2/5/7/-4; on pace for 9/23/32, which would only be slightly better than his rookie season, but in more games, and with diminished goalscoring. Mitchell is having a sophomore slump that even centering Kessel and Blake could not solve. Mitchell is the player I vote most likely to be caught looking completely lost on the ice this season. This half-million dollar is an RFA at the end of the year, and is able to play 3rd and 4th line at centre, so will likely stick around. He'll at least compete with Stajan for the 3 slot.
Phil Kessel 6/4/3/7/1; on pace for 47/35/82! OK, so those projections are slightly skewed because of the time he spent off and the hot start, but needless to say that Kessel is the real deal. Off at a 1.17 point per game clip, Kessel must make the future start now, because he's it.
Jeff Finger 9/1/5/6/-5; on pace for 8/41/49, though those assist numbers are inflated. He's never scored more than 17 helpers in any of his NHL seasons. Not that he couldn't, however. Finger's never played a full season, and won't this year either. It's a wonder why he has been kept a healthy scratch so often when he looks so comfortable on the ice, and other defencemen haven't. Burke and Wilson should make Finger integral to their system, as he'll be here a couple more years.
Nikolai Kulemin 14/3/0/3/-5; on pace for 17/0/17. OK again, obviously the young russian and former linemate of Ovechkin and Malkin will tally an assist. I'd even venture to say that he'll match his tally from last year. Kulemin has played his way into the doghouse with lacklustre effort, and out of it with chippy defensive play and a couple of opportunistic goals. He may have been rushed into the NHL, I'll grant that, but I think everyone put unrealistic expectations on this young man by assuming him to fill a top-six role.
Rickard Wallin 18/0/2/2/-4; on pace for 0/9/9. Why he has never even been a healthy scratch is beyond me. I don't feel it's enough to take up a roster slot and third line minutes and just be decent defensively. Colton Orr has similar production on next to no ice time. We should be talking about Christian Hanson here.
Luke Schenn 18/0/2/2/-5; on pace for 0/9/9, Luke never made his impact on the scoresheet. Schenn has struggled often this season defensively and cost his team bad goals at inopportune moments. He has shown the ability to rebound from a bad game as well, and play similarly to the impressive rookie we often admired last year. Schenn needs to find consistency to his game instead of trying to extend his range. He should also spend time learning from a variety of skilled mentors.
Jamal Mayers 6/0/1/1/-1;Colton Orr 18/0/1/1/-3;Wayne Primeau 13/1/0/1/-1;Jay Rosehill 6/1/0/1/-2; These 4 gentlemen do their jobs to expected degrees of success. I still don't really understand the Primeau trade, but I can't say he's been awful. I don't expect Mayers and Primeau to be back next year. I don't expect anyone will want them in trade throughout the year either, unless strictly as filler in a larger trade.
Mike Komisarek 16/0/0/0/-9; on pace for sweet shit all. Here's the culprit. Nobody takes a stupid penalty like Mike Komisarek. You can't play defence from the penalty box, but then again, Komisarek has had a difficult time playing defence, period. He had better learn to control his play to be edgy without crossing the line and improve his play on the penalty kill. His tailbone injury may prove to be a blessing in disguise for this team. I don't think you could give him away due to his contract and play as of late.
Garnet Exelby 10/0/0/0/-7; read Komisarek, above, but remove most defensive ability. Exelby is a great 'stand up for your team' guy. He's also a great 'miss a hit and send an odd man rush the other way' guy. We gave up Kubina for Exelby and to free up space for Komisarek. I'd rather have Kubina.
Viktor Stalberg N8/0/1/1/-5A6/3/4/7/1; Tyler Bozak N1/0/1/1/-2A12/2/4/6/-5; Jiri Tlusty N2/0/0/0/-2A12/6/4/10/-6; These three share a similar fate even though they are all different players. Tlusty never seems to be able to handle NHL play, and Stalberg needs to learn a few dekes and moves before he returns to the NHL. Bozak needs to improve all round, but seems most versatile, not to mention our need for top-six able centerman puts enormous pressure on him. Truthfully I'd sacrifice any of these guys in a trade with other components if it brought us some top-six talent. They will only see NHL time in the event of an injury, or a breakout performance that can be sustained with the big club.
Carl Gunnarsson N1/0/0/0/0A12/0/2/2/-2; a revelation this season. Solid play will reward this prospect with a slot on this team when it gets good. Hopefully he can develop a bit more offence as well, though he's never been an offensive defenceman.
Christian Hanson A14/5/8/13/3; OK, here I drool. He forechecks, he backchecks, he blocks shots, he scores and he's huge. Get him a TV, a VCR and a tape with every shift Johan Franzen's ever played. He is the traffic we need to put in front of our opponent's goal to increase our shooting percentage. Get It Done!

Burke has his work cut out for him. My only hope at this point is that we can salvage enough of the season to deny Boston a lottery pick.